Prevent
Warfare and the world in which it is waged are changing in ways that have repercussions for civilians. Technological developments can help address civilian needs, but they can also increase the pace, reach, and deadliness of attacks—both in the digital and physical spheres. In 2023, for example, armed actors around the world increasingly deployed artificial intelligence (AI) in active conflicts, resulting in significant challenges to ensuring the protection of civilians.1 AI-powered weapons systems enabled militaries to accelerate targeting processes and attacks at an unprecedented scale and speed without adequate safeguards in place, leading to increased levels of civilian harm. In response, a variety of independent, national, multilateral, and intergovernmental initiatives were launched to help constrain the use of AI in warfare. These initiatives have stressed the applicability of existing international law to new AI-powered weapons, generated non-binding state commitments, and underscored the need for new and binding international agreements on the use of AI-powered weapons. However, initiatives to constrain the use of AI and better integrate POC into it have struggled to keep pace with military developments.
Information manipulation, a longstanding component of war that features in historical and modern military strategies, has also been deployed by national militaries and armed non-state actors (ANSAs) across the globe. While not a new phenomenon, the spread of misinformation, disinformation, malinformation, and hate speech (MDMH) has become hyper-charged by the expanded use of the Internet and social media across the globe, which has greatly increased the scale and speed at which MDMH can spread in digital spaces. In conflict settings, MDMH is also increasingly targeted at civilians rather than military actors and is used by both civilian and military entities. As a result, the distinction is sometimes blurred.
Terminology
There are many related and overlapping terms used to describe the ways information can be manipulated as part of military strategy or to inflict harm on consumers. “Information operations” is an umbrella term that includes many different types of information manipulation. The difference between disinformation, misinformation, malinformation, and hate speech is in the truthfulness of the content being shared and the intent of the person sharing it.
Information operations: The strategic and calculated use of information and information-sharing systems to influence, disrupt, or divide society. Information operations can involve the collection of intelligence on specific targets, disinformation campaigns, and/or the recruitment of online influencers.
Misinformation: Inaccurate information that is unintentionally shared in good faith by those unaware that they are passing on falsehoods.
Disinformation: Information that is inaccurate, intended to deceive and shared in order to do serious harm.
Malinformation: Information that is based on reality, used to inflict harm on a person, social group, organization or country.
Hate Speech: Any kind of communication in speech, writing or behavior that attacks or uses pejorative or discriminatory language with reference to a person or a group on the basis of who they are, in other words, based on their religion, ethnicity, nationality, race, color, descent, gender or other identity factor. According to this definition, hate speech can only be directed at individuals or groups of individuals. It does not include communication about States and their offices, symbols or public officials, nor about religious leaders or tenets of faith.
*These definitions for misinformation, disinformation, malinformation, and hate speech are extracted verbatim from the UN Department of Peace Operations Policy on Information Integrity.
The continued privatization of war likewise poses a rising threat to civilians. States have increasingly outsourced their security needs to PMSCs in recent years.2 For the first time in its military history, the United States deployed more PMSCs as part of its military operations in Afghanistan than it did US military personnel, with 1.4 PMSC staff on contract for every member of the US military deployed.3 Notably, the Russian-affiliated Wagner Group has been linked to atrocities against civilians, including torture, rape, sexual violence, indiscriminate drone strikes, summary killings, and illegal resource extraction in Mali, the Central African Republic, and Ukraine. The set of state actors deploying PMSCs internationally also appears to be diversifying.4 While many humanitarian organizations continue to rely on a community acceptance model for security, humanitarian actors in recent years have also expanded their reliance on PMSCs to provide security.
PMSCs are sometimes considered more cost-effective and efficient than national troops, and they can be utilized to fill capacity gaps. However, PMSCs come with their own financial and political objectives that are rarely aligned with peace efforts. They complicate accountability for IHL and IHRL violations, and, ultimately, their use poses a high risk to civilians and risks further undermining security and governance in the countries where they operate. These risks tend to be highest when members of PMSCs involved in human rights violations and the direct targeting of civilians act with impunity, often with tacit endorsement of the states in which they operate.5
Additionally, the warming of the planet has serious implications for conflict. 2023 was the hottest year on record and was a year of unparalleled climate hazards. An estimated 30 percent more people lost their lives in 2023 as a result of climate disasters than in 2022, and some of the most catastrophic climate disasters hit countries already affected by conflict and extreme levels of violence—including Myanmar, Mozambique, Libya, South Sudan, and Mexico.6 Both rapid and slow onset climate hazards can exacerbate conflicts or act as threat multipliers.
The accelerating threat posed by AI, MDMH, PMSCs, and climate hazards needs to be addressed by states, ANSAs, regional actors, and multinational bodies. Action to counteract these trends should be a priority to prevent conflict from continuing to evolve in ways that are more and more deadly for civilians.
AI in the Theater of War: Developments, Challenges, and Ethical Dilemmas
In a developing AI arms race, many countries across the globe have accelerated investments in AI-powered military technology to maintain an edge over their adversaries. The Pentagon continued investing heavily in AI-powered weapons, including through Project Maven, which uses AI algorithms for battlefield surveillance,7 and using robotics and AI for underwater ocean surveillance in the Middle East region.8 Last year, combatants on both sides of the Russia–Ukraine war relied on AI-powered cameras and sensors on unmanned aerial vehicles to gather surveillance footage of their adversary’s military activities, and they used AI software to analyze the footage. They also relied on semi-autonomous drones for carrying out military strikes.9 The Israeli military deployed one AI program named “The Gospel” and another called “Lavender” to identify and track suspected Hamas militants based on patterns of behavior. Militants identified by these programs, including junior operatives, were then reportedly bombed in their homes alongside family members. These actions were taken at a rapid pace fueled by AI with minimal human oversight in the decision-making process. ANSAs have also recently developed the capacity to deploy AI on the battlefield, using open-source information to transform commercially available devices into AI-powered weapons.10
Several UN-led initiatives emerged in 2023 to identify threats posed by AI on the battlefield and generate guidance on how to regulate it. In October 2023, the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution on the human rights implications of new and emerging technologies in the military domain, emphasizing that international human rights law should be respected in the conception, design, development, deployment, evaluation, and regulation of data-driven technologies.11 The UN First Committee also passed a resolution on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) affirming that international law—including the UN Charter, international humanitarian law, and international human rights law—apply to the use of these systems. Applicable aspects of IHL include the principles of military necessity, humanity, proportionality, and distinction—avoiding disproportionate harm to civilians and distinguishing between combatants and civilians.11 The First Committee resolution therefore underscores the requirement that AI-powered weapons systems be designed and deployed in ways that respect these principles.12
The UN Secretary-General’s New Agenda for Peace, launched in July 2023, recommends that, by 2026, states should finalize a legally binding agreement to prohibit lethal autonomous weapons systems operating without human control or oversight and that are unable to adhere to international humanitarian law.13 The Secretary-General’s agenda recommends that such an agreement also regulate all other categories of autonomous weapons systems. In December 2023, the High-Level Advisory Body on AI, established by the Secretary-General, published its interim report. The report highlights how the borderless nature of AI tools poses new challenges to global stability, facilitating access to weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. Dual-use AI, it suggests, could fuel the creation of lethal autonomous weapons while bots with human-like traits rapidly spread harmful information. The report recommends that addressing these challenges requires global capabilities to monitor, report, and respond promptly to vulnerabilities. To build these capabilities, the report recommends devising a model inspired by the macro-prudential framework used by central banks but grounded in principles of international human rights norms.14 Further, the report acknowledges the importance of legally binding global norms and enforcement through a potential AI treaty, as well as the importance of non-binding norms.
In addition to UN-led efforts, a handful of countries took the lead in trying to identify the risks of deploying AI on the battlefield in 2023, and they are driving consensus around limitations on the use of AI. In February 2023, the Netherlands and South Korea co-hosted a Summit on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (REAIM) to discuss challenges and opportunities associated with the use of AI in military operations. Costa Rica organized a Regional Conference on the Social and Humanitarian Impact of Autonomous Weapons. In April 2023, Luxembourg organized the Autonomous Weapons Systems conference to discuss technical and ethical concerns and governance frameworks for LAWS. The CARICOM Declaration on Autonomous Weapons Systems, passed on September 6, 2023, at the regional CARICOM Conference in Trinidad and Tobago, commits signatories to working together to negotiate an international treaty banning unpredictable or uncontrollable LAWS that can use force without human control. Additionally, a US-led multilateral consultation process resulted in a Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of AI and Autonomy.15 By the end of 2023, it had been signed by forty-seven countries, including the US, France, Germany, Japan, and the UK.16 The Declaration has a set of ten non-legally binding guidelines describing best practices for responsible military use of AI.17
Clearly, the growing use of AI by combatants in warfare necessitates stronger international standards on the development, testing, and use of AI in armed conflict. In its unique role as a global body designed to address international security challenges, the UN can help lead such initiatives. Expanding upon their existing commitments, states should also establish binding legal regulations governing the use of AI-powered weapons in accordance with the principles of international law. Enhanced regulations will provide transparency and accountability regarding the development, deployment, and use of AI. Additionally, to facilitate the development of ethical guidelines and standards for the use of AI in military contexts, states should collaborate with the private sector and NGOs to understand the potential and actual impact of AI-powered weapons and systems on civilians. By signing on to new legal regulations and adopting a protection of civilian lens in deciding how and when to utilize AI on the battlefield, states can reduce the risk of harm to civilians in modern warfare.
To protect civilians as they invest in and use AI-powered systems, states should:
- Conduct appropriate legal reviews to guarantee that AI military capabilities are used in compliance with international law, including by ensuring that the use of AI-enabled systems does not cause disproportionate harm to civilians and civilian objects beyond what is needed to achieve a legitimate military aim.
- Implement appropriate safeguards to mitigate risks of failures and unintended consequences in military AI capabilities.
- Subject the design and development of military AI capabilities to extensive auditing and transparency processes.
- In accordance with the Secretary-General’s 2023 New Agenda for Peace, negotiate a legally binding instrument to regulate all autonomous weapons systems and prohibit lethal autonomous weapons systems that function without human control or oversight and that cannot be used in compliance with international humanitarian law.
A Cacophony of False and Misleading Information
The use of information operations by parties to a conflict during warfare is not categorically prohibited under international humanitarian law (IHL). Additional Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions permits “ruses of war,” which “are intended to mislead an adversary or induce him to act recklessly.”18 However, information operations can violate IHL if they are committed by someone directly participating in hostilities and breach other protections enshrined in IHL. For instance, misinformation, disinformation, malinformation, or hate speech (MDMH) that encourages IHL violations or incites violence against humanitarian operations can violate IHL. Likewise, IHL prohibits “acts or threats of violence, the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population.”19 In Ukraine, CIVIC identified Russian and Russian-affiliated disinformation efforts aimed at manipulating population movements that could be interpreted as an element of forced population transfer, which is prohibited under IHL. Forced population transfer includes not only physical force but also the use of fear, coercion, and psychological oppression to force population movements.20 International human rights law (IHRL) is also applicable in times of conflict, and some provisions of IHRL can offer protections against MDMH. For example, Article 20 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights prohibits “any advocacy of national, racial, or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility, or violence.”21
Even MDMH that does not clearly violate IHL or IHRL can cause significant civilian harm, especially in times of war. Access to information itself is increasingly seen as a right, and civilians faced with conflict need timely and accurate information to make life-and-death decisions about where to go and what to do to protect themselves.22 While it can be challenging to definitively link MDMH with real-world harms, as doing so requires establishing a link between information and action, there is a growing body of evidence that MDMH spread in conflict settings deeply undermines civilian well-being. It leads civilians to make decisions against their own interests, interrupts their access to life-saving services, encourages or legitimizes acts of violence, and inflicts mental and emotional harm.23
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies identified nearly four times the number of disinformation campaigns targeting the African continent in 2023 as compared to 2022, and it found that conflict-affected countries in Africa faced higher levels of disinformation than those not experiencing conflict.24 Across these contexts, disinformation was deployed to undermine community cohesion, peace processes, trust in UN peacekeepers, and the work of civil society organizations. In Niger, for example, disinformation exploded following a July 2023 military coup that overthrew a democratically elected government. Both before and after the coup, disinformation was used to stoke anti-French sentiment in the country. Old videos of politicians, protests, and private military and security companies were misattributed alongside false narratives about the activities of national, regional, and international actors in response to the coup.25 Similarly, following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s retaliatory war on the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), social media platforms were flooded with unsubstantiated claims, disinformation, and malinformation. The disinformation included false claims of several additional Hamas attacks against Israel that were accompanied by video game footage and news clips recycled from other contexts.26
In 2023, ANSAs deployed disinformation across different contexts as one component of their recruitment strategies. From larger organized armed groups—such as the Islamic State and Al-Shabaab—to smaller armed groups in Libya, the use of social media for disseminating propaganda, fundraising, and recruiting more fighters has been widely documented.27 Big Tech platforms use “hashing databases” to flag violent extremist content across internet platforms and to coordinate their removal. However, in late 2023, researchers found around 5,000 examples of such generative AI content on the Internet each week, all released by violent extremist organizations or individuals.28 The rapid proliferation of this violent content has threatened the ability of experts to regulate and remove it in a timely manner. X (formerly Twitter) now allows users to buy a verified badge—a tactic used by various individuals associated with Hezbollah to lend legitimacy to their X profiles while disseminating false and misleading content.29
The growing threat that MDMH poses to civilians necessitates urgent action on the part of states and international organizations. However, it can be challenging to contain and legislate MDMH. Perpetrators are often anonymous private actors (acting independently or under the employ of states). Moreover, efforts to restrict the spread of MDMH on- and offline may pose a risk to freedom of expression, as such efforts can be instrumentalized by state actors interested in curbing criticism of their regimes.30 In recent years, multilateral institutions—including the UN—have launched initiatives to better govern and restrict the spread of harmful MDMH. Among other initiatives, a 2019 African Commission on Human and People’s Rights Declaration of Principles on Freedom of Expression and Access to Information and a 2020 UN Strategy and Plan of Action on Hate Speech outline ways to address hate speech without infringing on free-speech rights. The European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA), which came into force in 2022, is the most comprehensive form of binding law on MDMH. It establishes rules for digital users, online platforms, and businesses operating in the EU, as well as fines and other accountability mechanisms for non-compliance.
The Secretary-General's New Agenda for Peace, launched in 2023, specifically recognizes the online dissemination of MDMH—and the corresponding failure of social media platforms to respect human rights standards in monitoring online harm—as one of the core threats contributing to global instability and insecurity. Additionally, a policy brief on Information Integrity on Digital Platforms released by the office of the UN Secretary-General in June 2023 launched a consultative process to develop a UN Code of Conduct for Information Integrity on Digital Platforms.
To address this burgeoning threat moving forward, states should invest heavily in media literacy and public awareness of MDMH. They should strengthen international collaboration to share best practices on combating the spread of MDMH, develop coordinated responses to transnational MDMH campaigns, and promote norms against the use of MDMH targeted at civilians and likely to contribute significantly to civilian harm. States should also learn from the EU’s experience and implement stronger national legislation requiring technology companies to better regulate the spread of harmful MDMH on their social media platforms. Such regulations should also require companies to report more transparently on their content moderation policies and practices, as well as how their algorithms function. Social media companies, specifically, should continue investing in advanced technologies that allow them to detect and curtail the spread of harmful MDMH, including through the use of AI. In conflict-affected countries, state authorities, technology companies, and civil society organizations should strengthen their collaboration to identify harmful MDMH narratives as early as possible.
Misinformation, Disinformation, Malinformation, and Hate Speech in UN Peacekeeping Settings
In many places where UN peacekeeping missions are deployed, MDMH is contributing to protection of civilians concerns. Disinformation campaigns are also increasingly targeting and posing a threat to peacekeeping missions themselves. In December 2023, the UN reported that its four African peacekeeping missions—MONUSCO in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), MINUSCA in the Central African Republic (CAR), MINUSMA in Mali, and UNMISS in South Sudan—were actively countering disinformation campaigns designed to undermine their credibility.31 A recent survey also showed that nearly half of UN peacekeepers believe misinformation severely impacts their work and safety.32 Although missions are moving to address this growing threat—in 2023, all four of these missions were mandated to respond to aspects of MDMH in some way—the tools and processes they have for doing so are still outmatched by the complexity of the MDMH landscape.
To better understand these dynamics, CIVIC undertook a desk review, consultations with a select number of key informants across countries where UN peacekeepers are or were recently deployed, and more in-depth data collection in South Sudan. The data collection in South Sudan was done in partnership with the Sentinel Project and consisted of surveys with 1,808 respondents (50.7 percent female, 49.2 percent male, and 0.1 percent other) as well as focus group discussions across six regions (Bentiu, Bor, Juba, Malakal, and Wau).
In many of the countries where UN peacekeeping missions are deployed, radio is the primary source of information for people, and it remains a highly trusted source of information.33 While Internet penetration is still quite low in countries like the CAR, the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan, access to the Internet, use of social media, and use of mobile messaging applications such as WhatsApp have been growing, especially among youth. In the national and regional capitals of these countries, social media use is significant enough that the spread of MDMH on digital forums can influence the political and social landscape.34 There is also an interplay between the spread of rumors online and offline, with some rumors beginning offline and migrating into the digital space, and vice versa.35 Research participants also highlighted the outsized role that social media allows diaspora groups to play in shaping political and security narratives in both positive in negative ways.36 In communities without access to Internet, limited availability of reliable information sources—including information about political processes and developments—can contribute to the spread of MDMH.
Notably, survey respondents and focus group discussion participants in South Sudan questioned the reliability of information shared on social media. These findings mirror those of a survey conducted in South Sudan by The Institute of Social Policy Research and DefyHateNow in which participants rated social media as the least trustworthy news source and the news source where misinformation was most prevalent.37 However, some civil society leaders emphasized the importance of social media as a form of two-way information-sharing that allowed the active involvement of civilians in reporting concerns and monitoring events, particularly in settings where traditional media actors are being targeted by national authorities or struggle to operate because of insecurity or lack of financial investment.38 As one civil society leader observed, “Radio is kind of uni-directional, although people call [in] to radios. People don’t speak to the radio. But social media is probably the medium that allows feedback, very immediate and reactionary feedback.”39
Overall, 86 percent of South Sudanese survey respondents reported feeling that the spread of false information was a major problem in the country; 53.7 percent felt that the number of rumors circulating was increasing; 47.4 percent felt strongly that rumors were contributing to violent conflict in their area; 53.8 percent felt strongly that rumors were contributing to violent conflict in the wider country; and 67.9 percent could remember an example where rumors had caused increased tensions or violence between different groups. In cases where rumors had contributed to violent conflict, 60.1 percent felt that the information was shared with an intent to cause harm. Nearly 80 percent of the respondents felt that it was highly or somewhat important to stop rumors, but only half of the respondents felt they had the information necessary to determine whether rumors were true or false.
When considering the impact of MDMH on civilian security and well-being, stakeholders identified different types of MDMH with varied targets and potential consequences. One type of MDMH involves the spread of false or manipulated information about different ethnic groups to mobilize communities to commit violence against each other.40 This type of MDMH might falsely claim, for example, that one community or ethnic group is preparing to attack another, has already committed an attack against another, or has stolen land that rightfully belongs to another group. Describing such campaigns, one civil society leader noted, “The person who might have engineered it definitely took that root [tension] to create a sort of misinformation to ignite that conflict or escalate an already existing conflict between cattle keepers and farmers.”41 Indeed, research in South Sudan highlights how the spread of these types of MDMH can be facilitated by preexisting ethnic divisions that have fostered an environment in which different ethnic groups have different sources of information and in which they distrust information originating from outside their ethnic group.42
A second category of disinformation targets political actors to shape national politics in ways that can affect peace and security.43 A third set of disinformation targets UN peacekeeping missions directly, as well as international non-governmental organizations and national human rights defenders. This type of MDMH seeks to discredit or undermine these organizations’ and individuals’ work in service of malicious actors’ political, military, and economic interests. Stakeholders identified, for example, a similar set of misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation circulating about peacekeeping missions across the CAR, the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan suggesting that peacekeeping missions are: supporting parties to a conflict militarily, such as by funneling weapons and ammunition to them; serving imperialist political agendas; illegally extracting natural resources; profiting from the corrupt diversion of aid resources; purposefully prolonging conflict for personal gain; responsible for sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA); and unresponsive to protection of civilians concerns.44 Some peacekeepers have been responsible for cases of SEA and have undoubtedly failed to act effectively in the face of some protection threats. However, interviewees gave examples of efforts by malicious actors to prey on these legitimate grievances by publicizing fake cases where no abuse or failure by peacekeepers appears to have taken place or where these broad narratives were clearly pushed in service of political aims without clear evidence of harm.45
One UN official, for instance, cited a case where peacekeepers shared information about an impending attack with national military leaders but were asked to stand down in favor of a response by the army. When the national military responded too slowly and civilians were killed, a malinformation campaign placed blame on the Mission, weakening trust in peacekeepers and allowing the military in question to escape blame. Speaking about the overall impact of misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation targeting political actors and peacekeepers, the UN official said, “We can see how the very localized mis- and disinformation machine starts producing fake news on a local level and shaping them, tailoring them for a lot of audiences. At the end of the day, it is done so that some much higher political interests are pushed forward, and these interests are not aligned with POC.” The official continued, “In relation to POC, these campaigns are indirect causes for our patrols being stopped in the same capacity that an IED [improvised explosive device] would have done. It doesn’t wound us physically, but it wounds our capacity to intervene and eventually kills us. … With a very small effort, it can destroy all of our efforts in establishment of a protective environment, good offices, and also in terms of physical protection if we are physically prevented from reaching an area. Then there is no POC.”46
Disinformation and malinformation campaigns of this nature have been used to mobilize civilians against MINUSMA and MONUSCO, contributing significantly to calls for their withdrawal and a crisis of legitimacy and consent for UN peacekeeping missions.47 And, notably, government actors in both the CAR and Mali have been credibly implicated in instigating disinformation campaigns against UN peacekeepers.48
Other protection actors can also become targets of MDMH. For example, speaking about the targeting of human rights champions, a civil society leader in South Sudan told CIVIC that women advocating against harmful cultural practices that are still supported by many community members face disinformation campaigns. These targeted campaigns seek to discredit the women’s voices, circulate death threats, and spread abuse both online and off.49
The spread of MDMH in countries where UN peacekeepers are deployed is fueled by a lack of timely access to reliable information. Disinformation in the CAR and Mali also increased following the deployment of Russian mercenaries, and much of it appears to have been fueled by civil society and media organizations with financial ties to Russia.50 Indeed, stakeholders described a dynamic in these countries—as well as in other contexts where UN peacekeepers are deployed—in which new civil society organizations have mushroomed overnight. While these organizations claim to represent the genuine views and needs of civilians, many are in reality funded by national and international political actors. Other bloggers and social media figures in these contexts are not directly funded by political interests, but they are motivated to share sensational and false stories by the financial gain that comes with having a wide viewership.51
UN peacekeepers in many settings have a mandated role to play in responding to MDMH that threatens civilians, and missions have a strategic imperative to address misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation about their own activities and staff. The stakeholders CIVIC interviewed felt that, in 2023, UN missions had a greater awareness of the threat posed by MDMH as compared to previous years, and that a growing effort was being mounted to address it.52 These efforts include mission Public Information Officers (PIOs) identifying MDMH and counter-messaging, assisted with some tools and support from the UN Secretariat.53 UN-supported radio stations are also a potent tool for missions to counter the spread of MDMH. Interviewees referenced radio programming designed to dispel rumors, as well as broader mission efforts to use radio stations as a platform to amplify the voices of civil society leaders and improve civilian access to reliable information.
However, mission efforts to tackle MDMH still appear to be too limited, ad hoc, and overly focused on MDMH targeting missions directly rather than MDMH targeting civilians. As one civil society leader stressed, “When we look at a peacekeeping mission and their mandate, the possibility of addressing these things, they can. There are great opportunities that are not being explored.”54 A UN official previously deployed in Mali observed, “Certainly, in my time, we were more concerned about the campaigns that were targeting us, the misinformation and disinformation against MINUSMA, against peacekeepers and all that. But not so much talking about mis- and disinformation targeting somebody else.”55 A second UN official shared, “I don’t think there is a clear mapping of where these campaigns go, who are the potential victims and perpetrators, and who we need to influence to move things. There is not this understanding, so without this understanding, anything the mission can do is ad hoc and because someone thinks it is a good idea to do. That probably comes from a good place, but it is not necessarily very structured or impactful.”56 Moreover, missions struggle to keep pace with the rapid tempo of MDMH spreading on digital platforms, and they rarely communicate in ways and on platforms that civilians are using to communicate.
To address some of these challenges and shortcomings, missions should ensure that efforts to identify and prevent the spread of harmful MDMH is not only the work of PIOs or viewed through a communications lens. These efforts should be whole-of-mission undertakings and involve a cross section of peacekeepers with the skillset and knowledge to more rapidly identify and analyze MDMH, including staff working within human rights, political affairs, and civil affairs sections as well as in joint mission analysis centers. When it does not pose a risk to civil society to do so, missions, other UN entities, donors, and INGOs should also work more substantively to support credible community leaders, journalists, bloggers, and other members of civil society as fact checkers and credible voices to share accurate information.
The Growing Specter of Private Military and Security Companies
In conflict-affected countries across the globe, private military and security companies (PMSCs) are taking on roles primarily considered the purview of national security forces.57 These roles include providing logistical, intelligence, and cyber support to military operations, training and equipping national security forces, protecting infrastructure, and fighting alongside domestic troops. Some humanitarian actors operating in conflict settings also rely on PMSCs to provide security for aid convoys, protect office buildings and warehouses, undertake risk analysis, train their staff, and manage security crises.58
Since mid-2022, the operations of the Wagner Group, a Russian PMSC with close ties to the country’s president, have significantly expanded on the African continent and in Ukraine.59 The Wagner Group (whose activities on the African continent are now labelled under the subsidiary of Africa Corps) has been credibly accused of committing widespread abuses across the many contexts where it has deployed, including Libya, the CAR, Mali, and Ukraine.60 A recent report showed that the Wagner Group had killed at least 1,800 civilians in Africa as of August 2023. In the CAR and Mali, attacks on civilians made up a higher percentage of Wagner’s overall clashes than those of state security forces and other ANSAs. On average, Wagner’s attacks against civilians were also more lethal for civilians than those of these other armed actors.61 According to ACLED data, conflict incidents and fatalities involving Wagner in the first four months of 2023 outnumbered all of the incidents and fatalities involving Wagner for the full 2022 calendar year.62 Notably, the Wagner Group, through partner companies, has utilized information operations to further its objectives, justify its presence across different territories, and undermine accountability for its violations.63
It is likely that, as confidence in traditional multilateral systems wanes (see the “Protect” section in this report) and the global order becomes more multipolar, that the use of PMSCs will continue to grow.64 While PMSCs can help fill important security and security assistance gaps, states need to take urgent action to address existing accountability gaps for PMSCs due to their expanded use and the risk they can pose to civilians in the conflicts where they are operating. Indeed, many actors have a role to play in addressing the PMSC accountability gap, including governments from which PMSCs are deployed, countries to which they are deployed, civil society organizations monitoring violations, the United Nations and other multilateral institutions, and PMSCs themselves.
Addressing the Impacts of Mercenaries and Private Military and Security Companies on Civilians: Enforcing Norms and Ensuring Accountability
This article was authored by Sorcha MacLeod65 and Jean-Michel Rousseau.66 In March 2024, the University of Copenhagen and DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance brought together more than 50 experts for two days of advanced-level discussion and reflection on the legal and policy challenges of mercenaries and related actors in contemporary armed conflicts. The multistakeholder event was funded by an Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) grant from the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme, with the authors as Co-Directors.67 In addition, a panel during the 2024 Protection of Civilians week in New York (co-organized by the University of Copenhagen, DCAF, and CIVIC, among others68) focused on how to protect civilians from harm by strengthening accountability for PMSCs. This article sets out some of the key conclusions and recommendations that emerged from these events to offer coherent insights into some of the regulatory and accountability challenges presented by PMSCs, mercenaries, and related actors in contemporary armed conflicts.
Protection risks to civilians resulting from the behavior and operations of PMSCs, mercenaries, and related actors are not new. However, private actors providing armed services for hire, such as mercenaries and PMSCs, have flourished across the globe in recent decades. In the case of PMSCs, where states have made conscious choices about the services they require and where those companies are properly regulated, overseen, and held accountable, they have the potential to increase state security and foster human security and regional security. Recurrent examples, nevertheless, show that mercenaries and PMSCs are frequently drivers of conflict, fragility, and instability.69 The increase in their geographical presence, scale, and form in recent years has led to additional systematic harm to civilians, including risks of extrajudicial killings, torture, arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, sexual and gender-based violence, and, in some cases, war crimes and crimes against humanity.70 This risk is most acute in fragile contexts—including those with peacekeeping missions or which have seen recent mission drawdown or withdrawal—where PMSCs and mercenaries are employed by states or local elites as security partners in joint security or counterterrorism operations against non-state armed groups. In some cases, they operate as proxies for third-party states advancing clear geopolitical goals, and their presence frequently drives natural resource extraction.71 Recent research has also highlighted additional compounding risks to civilians, including forced recruitment by and deployment with PMSCs and mercenaries, underscoring the global nature of the problem, which includes contexts such as Libya, Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Yemen, Syria, Ukraine, Haiti, and Colombia, among others.72
The importance of regulation
The visibility of mercenaries during the Cold War as well as PMSCs in the 1990s and 2000s, including concerns about their behavior and, in particular, their impacts on human rights and humanitarian law, led to international efforts to create a corpus of binding and soft law texts. These efforts resulted in the International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries; the Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa; the Montreux Document on pertinent international legal obligations and good practices for States related to operations of private military and security companies during armed conflict; and the International Code of Conduct for Private Security Providers.73 In addition, discussions about an international instrument on the regulation of PMSCs have been ongoing at the UN since 2010 in an intergovernmental working group. A Revised Third Draft of the instrument served as the basis for inter-state negotiations in April 2024, and further deliberations will take place in late 2024.74 Civil society actors, regulators, and academics are also involved in the process, among others. It is clear, therefore, that neither mercenaries nor PMSCs operate in a legal vacuum.75
The existing frameworks comprise a body of norms and good practices that have proven their effectiveness—when implemented (an important caveat). A 2022 study reviewed how states hire PMSC services and concluded that “the rate of civilian victimization decreased by 72%” when a state supports the Montreux Document.76 Meaningful reforms have taken place in contexts where multi-stakeholder processes bringing together public institutions, civil society, and the private sector have jointly formulated recommendations and driven their implementation.77 However, insufficient political will means these frameworks still often remain insufficient, human and financial resources for regulation are lacking, external oversight of PMSCs is not fostered, and mercenaries are often poorly regulated, if at all.
The importance of accountability
Accountability for harm caused by PMSCs and mercenaries is the area where there has been least progress to date. Attributing responsibility, leading investigations, and holding both individuals and states accountable at national, regional, and international levels is notoriously difficult. Both criminal prosecutions and remedies for victims are rare.78 Access to justice is chronically inadequate and can be actively obstructed. A sense of impunity surrounding the operations and behavior of PMSCs and mercenaries stemming from these accountability challenges is likely a contributing factor in their expanded use and the resulting increased risks of direct harm to civilians. Further, civil society, NGOs and other actors may be subjected to threats, intimidation, and reprisals for monitoring and reporting on PMSC and mercenary activities, as well as for their efforts toward seeking justice.
The promotion of accountability requires deeper consideration by states, civil society, inter-governmental organizations, and media, among others, to the role of: international and regional conventions and norms; international, regional, and national courts; and ad-hoc tribunals. Accountability must also include the provision of reparation and remedies for victims. Improving accountability for harm caused to civilians by PMSCs and mercenaries is essential to preventing future violations and the further unregulated spread of these actors. These are all issues that are being addressed by the recently launched MERCURY project at the University of Copenhagen funded by the European Research Council, which aims to identify viable pathways to accountability for victims of mercenaries and related actors.79
The way forward
PMSCs, mercenaries, and related actors are not a new phenomenon, but their contemporary use exhibits novel characteristics, especially around their opaque relationships with states, predatory recruitment practices, and the scale of atrocities committed. Moreover, they are different from other for-profit actors in that they fundamentally challenge good security sector governance (and corresponding security sector reform programming) as understood by all multilateral and regional organizations for two decades. States, as well as international and regional organizations, have struggled to react to these new challenges, adopting disjointed, disparate, and arguably ineffective responses to date. This is often due to fundamental misconceptions about the nature of these actors and the legal and policy frameworks within which they operate.
What is thus required is a multi-pronged approach to address the systemic risks and challenges posed:
- Knowledge production and dissemination: it is paramount to dynamize research networks and coalitions, in Europe and North America, but particularly on the ground, because they have privileged access to information about abuses perpetrated by these actors and their credibility helps counter disinformation promoted by and about PMSCs and mercenaries. Crucially, it is also important to ensure effective protection of local researchers, some of whom may be at risk from some PMSCs and mercenaries, to ensure the documentation of atrocities and preservation of evidence.
- Tracking new developments: while the sector overall is one that has been around for decades, it keeps growing continuously both in terms of services and geographic spread. It is important to analyze and understand new and emerging elements such as illicit financing, links with organized crime, the growing use of artificial intelligence by PMSCs, and regional developments such as in the Asia-Pacific region where the use of PMSCs for both economic and geopolitical reasons is growing yet understudied.
- Government action: governments need to lead by example when it comes to national regulation of mercenaries as well as of PMSCs, and they need to contribute to the development of norms, as only effective national approaches will give them legitimacy to push for stronger international rules. States should support existing international initiatives such as the International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries, and the Montreux Document, as well as engaging in the UN’s Open-Ended Intergovernmental Working Group on PMSCs. Finally, there is a pressing need to fund capacity-building for regulation, oversight, and accountability, particularly in fragile and conflict contexts.
Mercenaries and PMSCs do not operate in a legal vacuum. A wide array of international norms and tools can and should be used to regulate them. What is missing is the political will at the national level, and sufficient regional and international pressure to make it happen. In its absence, impunity will endure, and civilian populations will continue to experience atrocities perpetrated by these actors without recourse or access to justice and remedy.
Adverse Effects of Climate Change on Conflict and Vulnerability
The connection between climate change and conflict is clear: climate change contributes to protection risks and exacerbates underlying conflict dynamics through various pathways. Economists estimate that around half a degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated with a 10 to 20 percent increase in the risk of deadly conflict.80 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) identifies displacement, local resource competition, armed actor incentives, and elite exploitation as key climate-related security risks that increase the likelihood of violence.81 Other factors raising the risk of violence and civilian harm include economic uncertainty and food insecurity.82 These elements can arise from sudden events like floods and cyclones and due to gradual changes like desertification and rising sea levels.
Although climate-related conflicts may not differ greatly from conflicts where climate concerns are absent, understanding climate change's specific impacts on the vulnerabilities, threats, and self-protection capacities of conflict-affected communities is crucial to preventing civilian harm. Moreover, these linkages between climate hazards and conflict mean that, as climate-related hazards become more intense and/or frequent, more civilians will face conflict in new areas. This trend will require increased focus on civilian protection, and policies, practices, and local capacities must be adapted accordingly.
With around 20 million people displaced annually by weather-related sudden-onset hazards, the intersection of conflict and displacement, in particular, creates ever-changing protection needs.83 Climatic hazards disrupt social and economic stability, forcing resources to be diverted from long-term protection and climate adaptation to immediate needs. Protection mechanisms established by communities must therefore be continuously adapted to take into account new climatic shocks, as the effects on livelihoods and infrastructure markedly impact the most vulnerable groups. In South Sudan, for example, flooding hindered children's access to education, increasing their risk of recruitment by armed actors.84 However, strategies adopted to cope with climate changes can also heighten protection risks, as in the case of women collecting firewood in Nigeria who must now travel further due to droughts and floods—a situation that has increased their risk of attack and gender-based violence at the hands of non-state armed groups.85
Climate change affects state protective capacities as well. Relying on state security forces to respond to climate-related disasters can reduce their availability for other protective duties (such as protecting civilians from armed group violence), and increased disaster prevalence may necessitate new response capabilities and equipment. Climate-induced disasters also create access challenges for emergency responders when they result in impaired infrastructure like roads or runways. Additionally, when military or internal security forces respond to climate-related disasters, there is a risk of overreach and human rights issues arising due to capacity and training gaps or poor oversight. Increasing disaster prevalence, especially in conflict zones, might force states to use less experienced or professional forces for response, raising the risk of them using excessive force. Existing patterns of abuse by predatory security forces could worsen with climate-related scarcity or instability.86
In Yemen, for example, CIVIC documented how governance issues can worsen the effects of climate change and create a feedback loop between governance, climate risk, and insecurity.87 Conflict degrades the Yemeni government’s capacity to provide essential environmental services, exacerbating livelihood vulnerabilities, local migration, and the space for ANSAs to operate. These dynamics further undermine the government's ability to mitigate climate and conflict risks.
In some cases, global adaptation and mitigation efforts to counter the adverse effects of climate change may inadvertently exacerbate conflict and undermine civilian well-being. For instance, the transition to renewable energy has increased demand for critical raw materials like cobalt, nickel, and lithium. These resources are often extracted from conflict-affected or weakly governed countries, as in the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo.88 Additionally, climate adaptation investments, such as in agricultural infrastructure in response to climate change, can inadvertently fuel violence. This concern has been identified in Burkina Faso and Mali, where projects to increase rice production and dig wells to combat food insecurity arising from climate change increased competition for access to these new resources and brought communities into conflict.89
A strategy rooted in multi-sectoral collaboration, including across the government, security forces, armed groups, and civilian communities, is thus essential to address the compounded effects of climate change on the protection of civilians in conflict. Protection initiatives that consider the specific vulnerabilities of various groups, including women, children, the elderly, and people with disabilities, will ensure that their needs are met during and after climate-induced conflict. Robust accountability measures and enhancing the capacities of security forces to respond to climate-related threats would enable them to function effectively without compromising their protection duties. In addition, good practice and lessons should be identified in determining when security forces are the right actor to respond to climate hazards to avoid militarizing all response and prevent the use of militaries when they are not the best tool. Moreover, governments could help local communities build resilience against climate impacts through education, infrastructure development, and sustainable livelihood programs. Improved coordination between environmental, humanitarian, and security sectors to develop integrated protection strategies could efficiently address both immediate and long-term needs.
The Intersection of Climate Change and Conflict in Northeast Nigeria
This research was designed and implemented by Odinakaonye Lagi and Zainab Onuh-Yahaya through the Network of University Legal Aid Institutions-Nigeria (NULAI). Lagi and Onuh-Yahaya authored this article.
In northeast Nigeria, climate change-induced stressors are converging with conflict dynamics to drive water scarcity, deeply disrupt farming practices, and undermine civilian food security. Scarcity can fuel intercommunal tensions. At times, the behavior of state security forces, as they attempt to combat armed non-state groups (ANSAs), can contribute to civilian food insecurity and environmental degradation. The effects of these changes are felt by all community members, but not equally. Persons with debilitating illnesses and disabilities face additional barriers in accessing scarce resources. Women and men are affected differently by the multiplied effects of climate change and conflict on water and food security.
The arid regions in northeast Nigeria have experienced deviations in recent decades from established climatic norms and face substantial challenges from drought, desertification, and land degradation.90 Daily rainfall and sea-surface temperature data from 1986 to 2019 for Maiduguri in Borno state reveals a significant and continuous increase in sea-surface temperatures, which can impact the variability of rainfall.91 In Yobe state, desertification has occurred at a rate of approximately 0.37 miles per year (0.6 kilometers)—with over 20 houses buried under sand dunes annually—and has severely affected living conditions, leading to displacement and scarcity of arable land.92 Desert encroachment has also led to a significant decline in the number of available trees, further contributing to altered rainfall patterns, rainfall shortages, and water scarcity in both states.93
In Yobe and Borno states, Jamaat Ahlussunah li-Dawa wal-Jihad (JASDJ)—often referred to colloquially as Boko Haram—and its splinter group, the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), are the primary perpetrators of violence against civilians.94 The conflict between these ANSAs and state security forces has caused widespread displacement, triggered a humanitarian crisis, contributed to the loss of access to arable lands, and driven scarcity-induced conflict between herders and farmers.95 Such conflicts have been on the rise since 2020.96 From 2020 to 2024, more than 78 farmlands and 2500 inhabitants were affected by farmer–herder conflicts that destroyed civilians’ means of livelihood, leaving them stranded and dislocated with households burnt and livestock carted away.97
Bama in Borno state is one of the communities in northeast Nigeria worst-hit by ANSA violence, hosting about 50,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). NULAI researchers interviewed 12 civilians (six women and six men) in Bama in May 2024 to ascertain their views on the interplay between climate change impacts and armed conflict dynamics, including gendered protection concerns arising from these factors.98 These civilians affirmed that climate change has resulted in erratic weather conditions, including shorter and less predictable rainy seasons, reduced rainfall in some years, delayed onset of rain, higher temperatures, and hot winds.99 These environmental changes have contributed to water shortages and undermined civilians’ ability to farm and feed themselves and their families. “Nobody has started planting this season,” shared one civilian. They continued, “Everyone is complaining about the lack of rainfall. Our elders say the world is changing.”100 Another civilian affirmed, “Rainfall has affected us because there is no water. … Even the little water that we have cannot sustain because of the heat. … My watermelon planted in the bush, the temperature burned it, and I lost almost 500,000 naira.”101 According to Bama residents, men have somewhat better access to information about climate change and its likely impact on livelihoods than women in the community.102
Civilians in Bama also described how the tactics of JASDJ and ISWAP during their decades-long armed insurgency have disrupted access to water and food production systems in Bama—primarily fishing and farming.103 Farmers run the risk of being killed by Boko Haram and ISWAP if they try to farm or carry out other livelihood activities like firewood-gathering 10 kilometers beyond the military trenches, thereby confining them to less fertile and overused land near military-protected areas. “The lands are not accessible due to Boko Haram activities. And even if you can farm, you can't harvest. Boko Haram will harvest your farm,” said one woman.104 Echoing this concern, another woman in Bama said, "Boko Haram will not let us go in to do our farming activities. They usually intensify their attacks during harvest season and take away farmers’ successful harvests”105
While some waterways have dried up as a result of climate change, others are inaccessible to civilians because of JASDJ’s presence and the threat it poses. Underscoring the intersection of these challenges, one man noted, "I discussed this with a fisherman. I asked him about the availability of fish this year and last year. He said last year he had two bags of fish in his home, but today he doesn't have even a small portion of fish in his house. He told me when they go far to fish, Boko Haram will chase them away. And the rivers that were safe to fish had all dried up.”106 JASDJ has also been exacerbating the water shortages caused by climate change by directly vandalizing water infrastructure. According to a community leader in Bama, “[After] Boko Haram invaded the Bama community when they were trying to leave the community, they spoiled most of the boreholes. [For] some they removed the borehole, some they cut the pump and then fill[ed] it up with sand and stones so that if people return, they will find it difficult to have water. … That has led to water unavailability in the community.”107 JASDJ and ISWAP violence has also caused an influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to the towns, imposing an additional strain on host communities who already struggle with restricted access to land and other resources. One IDP told NULAI that he faces additional challenges in accessing water because of his status as a displaced person. He said, “I get drinking water in the camp, but it is not enough for us because of our population. Sometimes we have to go to the town to fetch water. And sometimes people outside the camp discriminate against us because we are IDPs.”108
National security forces have dug trenches around Bama, intended as deterrents or barricades marking safe areas for community members. However, the fields within these perimeters can only provide sustenance for a very small fraction of the population, as there is insufficient space for crop cultivation.109 According to civilians in the community, state security forces have limited the hours when they can access agricultural fields beyond these perimeters. “They don’t allow people to go to the farm early in the morning. … Sometimes they will only allow people access to the bush around 10:00 am, and the time is not appropriate to go to the farm.110 Security forces have also imposed restrictions on the variety of crops that can grow tall.111 “We are told to plant crops that don't have long stems like maize.”112 Another participant further explained, “Instead, we are planting low crops like groundnut, okra, and cowpea.”113 While these restrictions are meant to aid the national security forces in their fight against ANSAs, they also negatively impact food diversity and create additional barriers to food security.
Water and food scarcity driven by climate change and conflict are experienced and addressed differently by different members of the Bama community. Describing the differential impact of water shortages on women, one participant stressed, “Women and girls are responsible for fetching water. Women are suffering to get water. Whether pregnant or elderly, women are the ones that fetch water. Men don't fetch water. And if you couldn't go to fetch you would have to buy 25 liters at 50 Naira and manage it. … You must use water to perform ablution, bathe, wash children, and wash clothes, when you fetch in the morning you have to fetch again at night. We have water problems.”114 Indeed, women in Bama and other parts of Borno and Yobe states have tried to adapt to the water scarcity by creating a new "water culture," known as Adashen ruwa, where water is reciprocally loaned out for events such as childbirth, weddings, and naming ceremonies. For these women, this practice is one of the ways they care for each other in a community where mutual support is crucial.115 Meanwhile, two Bama residents with disabilities recounted to CIVIC the added struggles they face in reaching and obtaining water at crowded boreholes where tensions among community members are high. They also noted that rising temperatures make their already difficult physical endeavors more challenging and exacerbate underlying medical issues.116
With farmland and firewood near towns limited and depleted, civilians have to travel further to access fertile farmland and fuel, which places them at risk of encountering NSAGs. Civilians told CIVIC that it is usually women who venture far from towns to farm and collect firewood because these responsibilities often fall to women in their society and because ANSAs will kill men but usually inflict non-lethal forms of harm on women. Thus, women risk illegal taxation, sexual violence, and abduction at the hands of ANSAs.117 A woman shared one such experience of encountering JASDJ with NULAI: “While trying to pack all the wood that [we] can fetch and trying to tie it, some people notified us that, ‘here they are coming, here they are coming.’ So [we] just left the firewood and ran away. So, while running, sometimes they will still come just in front of you to surround you and you can’t escape. But [I] escaped with no shoes, that was how [I] escaped.”118
Bama residents also told NULAI that the national security forces and ANSAs directly contribute to environmental degradation and altering local microclimates by cutting down trees to aid their operations. Detailing this phenomenon, one man shared, “Both military and Boko Haram fell down trees to clear the bush, and that leads to hot weather and hot breeze coming in. Even if you plant, it’ll dry up.”119 A community leader likewise detailed this vicious cycle, where the loss of trees leads to harsher farming conditions, further reducing agricultural productivity: “Due to this felling of trees in the bush, there is heat flowing into the town. … Before there were a lot of trees in the farm that would intercept the wind. … But now with the absence of these trees, the impact of the sunlight is coming directly to the farmland and if it does not rain for two to three days it will burn or kill the crops.”120 Describing these negative coping mechanisms, one woman said, “People are saying that big trees should not be cut down because the big trees are our lifeline. But people are still cutting them down.”121 The convergence of climate change and armed actor tactics to erode community water and food security has further fueled this deforestation and conflict: some civilians have themselves turned to felling trees for firewood and charcoal in the absence of other livelihoods, while other community members—particularly young men—risk their lives by providing labor and other types of assistance to ANSAs in exchange for payment, or they join them.122
Some civilians felt that the security forces could play a role in preventing deforestation and managing natural resources.123 However, this would need to be accompanied by livelihood support to rebuild their lives and reduce reliance on tree felling as a source of income.124 A civilian commenting on this dynamic said, “The security forces can use force to stop people from cutting down trees. But that will affect people because people don't have any means of making a living.”125
Footnotes
- The use of AI in warfare refers to the use of computer systems to implement tasks that would ordinarily require human cognition, planning, or reasoning. See ICRC, “International Humanitarian Law and the Challenges of Contemporary Armed Conflict,” Report prepared for the 31st International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, 2011, Doc. No. 31IC/11/5.1.2, 39.
- Council of the European Union, “The Business of War – Growing risks from Private Military Companies,” 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/66700/private-military-companies-final-31-august.pdf.
- Federica Saini Fasanotti, “The future of private military companies,” Geopolitical Intelligence Services, February 6, 2024, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/private-military-companies/.
- Ori Swed and Daniel Burland, “The Global Expansion of PMSCs: Trends, Opportunities, and Risks,” OHCHR, https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Issues/Mercenaries/WG/ImmigrationAndBorder/swed-burland-submission.pdf.
- CIVIC, Privatizing War: The Impact of Private Military Companies on the Protection of Civilians, November 2022. See also: Emanuela-Chiara Gillard, “Business goes to war: private military/security companies and international humanitarian law,” International Review of the Red Cross 88, no. 63 (September 2006); Carsten Hoppe, “Passing the Buck: State Responsibility for Private Military Companies,” European Journal of International Law 19, no. 5 (November 2008).
- World Food Program USA, “Worst Climate Disasters of 2023 and Their Effects on Global Hunger,” January 22, 2024, https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/worst-climate-disasters-of-2023-and-their-effects-on-global-hunger/; Save the Children, “2023 in Review: Climate Disasters Claimed 12,000 Lives Globally in 2023,” December 20, 2023, https://www.savethechildren.net/news/2023-review-climate-disasters-claimed-12000-lives-globally-2023#:~:text=Save%20the%20Children's%20analysis%20of,those%20killed%20(5%2C326)%20from%20countries; CIVIC, To Stem the Tide: Climate Change, UNMISS, and the Protection of Civilians, August 2024.
- Cheryl Pellerin, “Project Maven to Deploy Computer Algorithms to War Zone by Year’s End,” DOD News, July 21, 2017, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1254719/project-maven-to-deploy-computer-algorithms-to-war-zone-by-years-end/.
- Will Knight, “The AI-Powered Totally Autonomous Future of War is Here,” Wired, July 25, 2023, https://www.wired.com/story/ai-powered-totally-autonomous-future-of-war-is-here/.
- Heather Ashby, “From Gaza to Ukraine, AI is Transforming War,” Inkstick, March 6, 2024, https://inkstickmedia.com/from-gaza-to-ukraine-ai-is-transforming-war/.
- Stuart Russell, “Why we need to regulate non-state use of arms,” World Economic Forum, May 18, 2022, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/regulate-non-state-use-arms/.
- UN Doc. A/HRC/RES/51/22, October 11, 2022, https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G22/520/64/PDF/G2252064.pdf?OpenElement.
- UN Doc. A/C.1/78/L.56, October 12, 2023.
- UN Secretary-General, “New Agenda for Peace,” July 2023, page 27, https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/our-common-agenda-policy-brief-new-agenda-for-peace-en.pdf.
- United Nations, “Interim Report: Governing AI for Humanity,” December 2023, para. 71–72, https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/un_ai_advisory_body_governing_ai_for_humanity_interim_report.pdf.
- US Department of State, “Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy,” November 9, 2023, https://www.state.gov/political-declaration-on-responsible-military-use-of-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomy-2/.
- US Department of State, “Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy,” November 1, 2023 (updated February 12, 2024), https://www.state.gov/political-declaration-on-responsible-military-use-of-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomy/
- Lauren Kahn, “How the United States Can Set International Norms for Military Use of AI,” Lawfare, January 21, 2024, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/how-the-united-states-can-set-international-norms-for-military-use-of-ai.
- Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and Relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts, Article 37 on Prohibition of Perfidy, June 8, 1977.
- Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and Relating to the Protection of Victims of Non-International Armed Conflicts, Article 13 on Protection of the Civilian Population, June 8, 1977.
- CIVIC, When Words Become Weapons: The Unprecedented Risks to Civilians from the Spread of Disinformation in Ukraine, October 2023, https://civiliansinconflict.org/publications/research/when-words-become-weapons-the-unprecedented-risks-to-civilians-from-the-spread-of-disinformation-in-ukraine/.
- International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Article 20, December 16, 1966.
- Matt Burgess and Lily Hay Newman, “Internet Blackouts in Gaza Are a New Weapon in the Israel-Hamas War,” Wired, November 7, 2023, https://www.wired.com/story/israel-gaza-internet-blackouts-weapon/.
- Chris Brew, “From content to harm: how harmful information contributes to civilian harm,” ICRC Humanitarian Law and Policy Blog, February 27, 2024, https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2024/02/27/from-content-to-harm-how-harmful-information-contributes-to-civilian-harm/#:~:text=Unreliable%20information%20may%20prevent%20people,conflict%20within%20the%20last%20decade.
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Mapping a Surge of Disinformation in Africa,” March 13, 2024, https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mapping-a-surge-of-disinformation-in-africa/.
- Jason Burke, “Russia uses social media channels to exploit Niger coup,” The Guardian, August 27, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/russia-uses-social-media-channels-to-exploit-niger-coup; Peter Mwai, “Niger coup: Fact-checking misinformation spreading online,” BBC, August 8, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66406517.
- Angelo Fichera, Roni Rabin, and Arijeta Lajka, “False Claims Around Israel Attacks Include Recycled Videos and a Game Clip,” NY Times, October 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-attacks-video-disinformation.html?searchResultPosition=2https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-attacks-video-disinformation.html?searchResultPosition=2.
- Laura Courchesne and Brian McQuinn, “After the Islamic State: Social Media and Armed Groups,” War on the Rocks, April 9, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/after-the-islamic-state-social-media-and-armed-groups/.
- David Gilbert, “Here’s How Violent Extremists Are Exploiting Generative AI Tools,” Wired, November 9, 2023, https://www.wired.com/story/generative-ai-terrorism-content/.
- John Brookin,“Elon Musk’s X Gave Check Marks to Terrorist Group Leaders, Report Says,” Wired, February 15, 2024, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-x-checkmarks-terrorist-groups/.
- Tate Ryan-Mosley, “How generative AI is boosting the spread of disinformation and propaganda,” MIT Technology Review, October 4, 2023; https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/04/1080801/generative-ai-boosting-disinformation-and-propaganda-freedom-house/.
- UN Security Council Report, “UN Transitions in a Fractured Multilateral Environment,” December 8, 2023, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/transitions_2023.pdf.
- Edith Lederer, “UN stresses key communications role to combat disinformation,” AP New, July 12, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/social-media-united-nations-misinformation-6ff3340e4ba3a93ca97a5107c42a2873.
- CIVIC interview with NGO official #1, Juba, April 2024; CIVIC interview with NGO official, #5, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024. See also, Internews, “Find the Link: Information Dynamics of Displaced Communities in Mali during COVID-19,” March 2021, https://internews.org/resource/find-link-information-dynamics-displaced-communities-mali-during-covid-19/.
- CIVIC interview with NGO official #1, Juba, April 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader #2, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with subject matter expert, #3, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with NGO official, #5, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.See also Internews, “Find the Link: Information Dynamics of Displaced Communities in Mali during COVID-19.”
- CIVIC interview with civil society leader #2, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with subject matter expert, #3, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024.
- Unmasking Disinformation And Misinformation In South Sudan: Understanding The Landscape, Defining Strategies, The Institute of Social Policy & Research and DefyHateNow South Sudan, December 2023.
- CIVIC interview with NGO official #1, Juba, April 2024; CIVIC interview with NGO official, #5, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with subject matter expert, #3, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with NGO official, #5, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with NGO official, #5, Juba, July 2024.
- Survey and FGD data from Sentinel Project research.
- CIVIC interview with NGO official #1, Juba, April 2024; CIVIC interview with UN official, #4, New York, April 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024.
- Survey and FGD data from Sentinel Project research. CIVIC interview with NGO official #1, Juba, April 2024; CIVIC interview with NGO official, #5, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with civil society leader #2, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with UN official, #4, New York, April 2024; CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with UN official, #4, New York, April 2024.
- UN News, “Interview: Battling fake news for peace and security in DR Congo,” October 2023, https://news.un.org/en/interview/2023/10/1141727; Jenna Russo, “Protests against UN in Eastern Congo Highlight Peace Mission’s Crisis of Legitimacy,” The Conversation, July 31, 2022, https://theconversation.com/protests-against-un-in-eastern-congo-highlight-peace-missions-crisis-of-legitimacy-187932; Anjali Dayal, “A Crisis of Consent in UN Peace Operations,” IPI Global Observatory, August 2, 2022, https://theglobalobservatory.org/2022/08/a-crisis-of-consent-in-un-peace-operations/; Albert Trithart, “Disinformation against UN Peacekeeping Operations,” International Peace Institute, November 2022, https://www.ipinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2212_Disinformation-against-UN-Peacekeeping-Ops.pdf; Baba Ahmed, “The UN peacekeeping mission in Mali ends after 10 years, following the junta’s pressure to go,” AP News, December 11, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/mali-un-peacekeeping-extremism-ffd9c0ebe51e8db820ddc41a101c8d98.
- UN Doc. S/2020/662.
- CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024.
- Stanford Internet Observatory, “Evidence of Russia-Linked Influence Operations in Africa,” October 30, 2019, https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io/news/prigozhin-africa; Jean Le Roux, “Pro-Russian Facebook Assets in Mali Coordinated Support for Wagner Group, Anti-Democracy Protests,” Digital Forensic Research Lab, February 17, 2022, https://medium.com/dfrlab/pro-russian-facebook-assets-in-mali-coordinated-support-for-wagner-group-anti-democracy-protests-2abaac4d87c4.
- CIVIC interview with civil society leader #2, Paris, April 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.
- CIVIC interview with UN official, #4, New York, April 2024; CIVIC interview with civil society leader, #6, Juba, July 2024; CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.
- In 2024, the UN Department of Peace Operations also finalized a Policy on Information Integrity that provides significant guidance for peacekeepers on how to handle MDMH. Because CIVIC’s report focuses on events in 2023, the policy is not discussed in this article. Among other critical guidance, the Policy underscores the need for action countering harmful MDMH to be a whol-of-mission effort, which is one of the findings of this research.
- CIVIC interview with NGO official #1, Juba, April 2024.
- CIVIC interview with UN official, #4, New York, April 2024.
- CIVIC interview with former UN official, #7, July 2024.
- PMSCs are sometimes referred to interchangeably as private military companies (PMCs) and mercenaries. The UN defines PMSCs as corporate entities providing, on a compensatory basis, military and/or security services by physical persons and/or legal entities. See UN Doc. A/HRC/15/25, annex, article 2.
- UN Doc. A/HRC/48/51.
- Raphael Parens, Colin P. Clarke, Christopher Faulkner, and Kendal Wolf, “The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 2023, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/04/the-wagner-groups-expanding-global-footprint/; Catrina Doxsee, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jennifer Jun, “Base Expansion in Mali Indicates Growing Wagner Group Investment,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, August 15, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/base-expansion-mali-indicates-growing-wagner-group-investment.
- Parens, Clarke, Faulkner, and Wolf, “The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint.”
- “Wagner routinely targets civilians in Africa,” The Economist, August 31, 2023; https://web.archive.org/web/20231013141442/https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/08/31/wagner-routinely-targets-civilians-in-africa.
- ACLED, “Moving Out of the Shadows Shifts in Wagner Group Operations Around the World,” August 2, 2023, https://acleddata.com/2023/08/02/moving-out-of-the-shadows-shifts-in-wagner-group-operations-around-the-world/#exec.
- U.S. Department of State, “The Wagner Group’s Atrocities in Africa: Lies and Truth,” February 8, 2024, https://www.state.gov/the-wagner-groups-atrocities-in-africa-lies-and-truth/#:~:text=According%20to%20The%20Economist%2C%20Wagner,has%20surged%20by%20278%20percent.
- Federica Saini Fasanotti, “The future of private military companies,” Geopolitical Intelligence Services, February 6, 2024, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/private-military-companies/.
- University of Copenhagen; member of the UN Working Group on mercenaries, 2018–2024. sorcha.macleod@jur.ku.dk.
- DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance. j.rousseau@dcaf.ch.
- Grant ID: SPS ARW G6181, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/78209.htm.
- UN OCHA, “Protection of Civilians Week 2024,” https://www.unocha.org/events/protection-civilians-week-2024. This event was co-hosted by the Permanent Missions to the United Nations of Australia, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, and the UK. In addition to the authors, remarks were made by Margaret Satterthwaite (UN Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers), Erica Gaston (UNU-CPR), and Felip Daza (NOVACT).
- See, for example, UN Working Group on mercenaries Communications: LBY 1/2020, CAF 2/2021, MLI 3/2022, RUS 14/2021, AZE 2/2020, TUR 7/2020, RUS 8/2023, OTH 8/2023 (Wagner Group).
- See, for example, UN Working Group on mercenaries, “Statement by the UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries warns about the dangers of the growing use of mercenaries around the globe,” 2022, https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/03/statement-un-working-group-use-mercenaries-warns-about-dangers-growing-use?LangID=E&NewsID=28210; DCAF and CIVIC, “The growing use of private military and security companies in conflict settings: How to reduce threats to civilians,” 2022, https://www.dcaf.ch/private-military-and-security-companies-how-reduce-threats-civilians.
- UN Working Group on mercenaries report, “Evolving forms, trends and manifestations of mercenaries and mercenary-related activities,” July 28, 2020, UN Doc. A/75/259.
- See, for example, UN Working Group on mercenaries report, “Recruitment, including predatory recruitment, of mercenaries and mercenary-related actors,” July 12, 2023, UN Doc. A/HRC/54/29.
- Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), June 8, 1977; Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism in Africa CM/817 (XXIX) Annex II Rev.1, July 3, 1977; International Convention against the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries 44/34 New York, December 4, 1989; “The Montreux Document on Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for States Related to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies during Armed Conflict,” Montreux Document Forum, 2008, https://www.mdforum.ch/en/montreux-document; Open-ended intergovernmental working group to elaborate the content of an international regulatory framework, without prejudging the nature thereof, relating to the activities of private military and security companies, “Revised Second Draft Instrument on an International Regulatory Framework on the Regulation, Monitoring of and Oversight Over the Activities of Private Military and Security Companies,” 4th Session, April 17–21 2023, https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/wgmilitary/four-session/PMSCs-RevisedSecondDraftInstrument-in-track-changes.pdf; “International Code of Conduct for Private Security Providers, as Amended 10 December 2021,” December 10, 2010, https://www.icoca.ch/en/the_icoc.
- Open-ended Intergovernmental Working Group to elaborate the content of an international regulatory framework, without prejudging the nature thereof, relating to the activities of private military and security companies, https://www.ohchr.org/en/hr-bodies/hrc/pms-cs/igwg-index/5th-session-igwg-military.
- For more on this topic, see: UN Working Group on mercenaries, “Regulatory environment for mercenaries, mercenary-related actors, and private military and security companies: a call to action,” October 17, 2023, UN Doc. A/78/535; Sorcha MacLeod, “Private military and security companies in armed conflict: the current regulatory landscape for private military and security companies,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2023 (Oxford University Press, 2023); Jean-Michel Rousseau, “Private military and security companies need to be held accountable,” SwissInfo, September 6, 2023, www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/private-military-and-security-companies-need-to-be-held-accountable/48767052.
- Charlotte Penel and Ulrich Petersohn, “Commercial Military Actors and Civilian Victimization in Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and Asia,” Journal of Global Security Studies 7, no. 1 (January 2022), https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogab029.
- One frequently used tool is: DCAF, "Legislative Guidance Tool for States to Regulate Private Military and Security Companies,” September 12, 2016, https://www.dcaf.ch/legislative-guidance-tool-states-regulate-private-military-and-security-companies-0.
- UN Working Group on mercenaries report, “Access to justice, accountability and remedies for victims of mercenaries, mercenary-related actors and private military and security companies,” July 5, 2022, UN Doc. A/HRC/51/25.
- MERCURY - Mercenarism and the Accountability Void: Finding routes to accountability and remedy for the victims of human rights abuses perpetrated by mercenaries,” ERC MERCURY project number 101126248, https://jura.ku.dk/privategovernance/english/research/mercury/.
- Marshall Burke, Solomon Hsiang, and Edward Miguel, “Climate and Conflict,” Annual Review of Economics 7 (2015).
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk,” 2022, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-05/environment_of_peace_security_in_a_new_era_of_risk_0.pdf.
- Sebastian van Baalen and Malin Mobjork, “Climate Change and Violent Conflict in East Africa: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Probe the Mechanisms,” International Studies Review 20, no.4 (November 2017), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320994410_Climate_Change_and_Violent_Conflict_in_East_Africa_Integrating_Qualitative_and_Quantitative_Research_to_Probe_the_Mechanisms.
- “Climate Change and Displacement,” UNHCR, https://www.unhcr.org/what-we-do/build-better-futures/climate-change-and-displacement.
- CIVIC, To Stem the Tide: Climate Change, UNMISS, and the Protection of Civilians, August 2024.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), “Greening the Blue Helmets: Environment, Natural Resources, and UN Peacekeeping Operations,” 2012; Michael Ekwe, “A deadly duo: Climate change and conflict are fuelling Nigeria’s food insecurity crisis,” The Conversation, June 6, 2023, https://theconversation.com/a-deadly-duo-climate-change-and-conflict-are-fuelling-nigerias-food-insecurity-crisis-206042; Mohammed Ngozi Thelma, “Desertification in Northern Nigeria: Causes and implications for national food security,” Environmental Science, Agricultural and Food Sciences, Economics(2015).
- CIVIC, Climate Change and the Protection of Civilians in Conflict, 2023.
- CIVIC, Risking the Future: Climate Change, Environmental Destruction, and Conflict in Yemen, October 2022, https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/CIVIC_Report_Yemen_ClimateCrisis_ProtectionofCivilians.pdf.
- Clare Church and Alec Crawford, “Green Conflict Minerals: The fuels of conflict in the transition to a low-carbon economy,” International Institute for Sustainable Development, August 2018, https://www.iisd.org/story/green-conflict-minerals/.
- Tarek Ghani and Robert Malley, “Climate Change Doesn’t Have to Stoke Conflict,” Foreign Affairs, September 28, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ethiopia/2020-09-28/climate-change-doesnt-have-stoke-conflict?check_logged_in=1.
- Sebastian Lüning, Mariusz Gałka, Iliya Bauchi Danladi, Theophilus Aanuoluwa Adagunodo, and Fritz Vahrenholt, “Hydroclimate in Africa during the Medieval Climate Anomaly,” Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 495 (April 2018).
- Obiageli J. Ugonabo, Ernest Benjamin Ikechukwu Ugwu, and Abigail Alfa, “Rainfall and sea-surface temperature analyses over Maiduguri, Nigeria using Mann-Kendall test,” International Journal of Physics Sciences 18, no. 2 (April–May, 2023).
- Murtala Abdullahi, “Desert swallows livelihoods as climate shocks continue in northeast Nigeria,” AlJazeera, January 5, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/1/5/desert-swallows-livelihoods-as-climate-shocks-continue-in-northeast-nigeria.
- A.G. Hassan, M.A. Fullen, and D. Oloke, “Problems of drought and its management in Yobe State, Nigeria,” Weather and Climate Extremes 23 (March 2019).
- European Union Agency for Asylum, Country Guidance–Nigeria: Yobe, 2021.
- International Organization for Migration (IOM), “The Dilemma of the Displaced in Northeast Nigeria,” October 30, 2023.
- Kunle Adebajo and Murtala Abdullahi, “As the Desert Stretches, So Does Nigeria’s Farmer Herder Crises,” The Human Angle, April 11, 2022, https://humanglemedia.com/as-the-desert-stretches-so-does-nigerias-farmer-herder-crisis/.
- Ibrahim Baba Saleh, “Tension In Yobe Over Rising Farmers, Herders Clashes,” Daily Trust, December 23, 2020, https://dailytrust.com/tension-in-yobe-over-rising-farmers-herders-clashes/; Ndahi Marama, “Insecurity: Yobe Gov okays rehabilitation of 2,500 victims of farmers/herders conflicts,” Vanguard, January 27, 2022, https://www.vanguardngr.com/2022/01/insecurity-yobe-gov-okays-rehabilitation-of-2500-victims-of-farmers-herders-conflicts/.
- Interviews were qualitative and semi-structured. Two of the participants identified as having disabilities. Five were IDPs. The age of participants ranged from 24 to 50 years of age. Interviews were conducted in Kanuri language in the Bama community and at the office of the State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) in the Bama IDP camp.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #101, #103, #104 #108, #109, and #110, conducted in Bama in May 2024. See also, Temidayo Ebenezer Olagunju, “Drought, desertification and the Nigerian environment: A review,” Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment 7, no. 7 (July 2015).
- NULAI interview with civilian, #106, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #101, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #101, #103, #105, #109, #110 and a community leader representative in Bama in May 2024.
- This dynamic has been documented more widely across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states. See, for example, Timothy Olarenwaju, “WASH: 5 million people lack access to water in North East,” The Sun, March 26, 2024, https://sunnewsonline.com/wash-5-million-people-lack-access-to-water-in-north-east/; Hadiza Mohammed and Onyinye Oranezi, “Hand Hygiene Day 2024: Water Shortages in Nigerian Communities Could Undermine WASH Efforts,” Nigeria Health Watch, May 29, 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #107, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #103, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #104, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with community leader representative in Bama community in May 2024. This issue was also highlighted in NULAI interview with civilian, #101, Bama, May 2024. See also, Mohammed and Oranezi, “Hand Hygiene Day 2024.”
- NULAI interview with civilian, #111, Bama, May 2024.
- Durrani, Rwala, and Ibrahim, “When Climate Change and Conflict Collide: The Need for Localisation Amid Nigeria’s Protracted Crises,” Humanitarian Practice Network, (Issue 84, Article 5), March 13, 2024; Medecins Sans Frontiers, “‘The Situation in Northeast Nigeria is Deteriorating After Years of Conflict,” July 18, 2018, https://www.msf.org/situation-northeast-nigeria-deteriorating-after-years-conflict.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #105, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #101, #103, #104, #105, #106, #107, #111, and a community leader representative, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #106, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #103, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #107, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #109 and #110, Bama, May 2024. See also, Ahmah Salkida, “The water wars in north-east Nigeria,” The Cable, May 15, 2017, https://www.thecable.ng/water-wars-north-east-nigeria/.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #104 and #102, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #103, #104, and #106, Bama, May 2024. CIVIC has also documented this dynamic through its research in other towns.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #103, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #101, Bama, May 2024.
- NULAI interview with a representative of the community leader in Bama in May 2024.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #107, Bama, May 2024
- NULAI interview with civilian, #105, Bama, May 2024. This issue was also cited in interviews #108 and #110.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #101, #102, #103, #104, #105, #107, #108.
- NULAI interviews with civilians, #101, #102, #108, #109, #110.
- NULAI interview with civilian, #108, Bama, May 2024.